Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

Vol. VI / No. 4 | July 2025

Authors:
Christopher Paller Gerale, Student at State University of Malang, Indonesia

Summary
The Philippines occupies a geostrategically pivotal position in the Indo-Pacific, yet its defence posture reveals a profound lack of harmony between declaratory principles and operational conduct. While it concurrently espouses a doctrine of independent foreign policy, Manila amplifies its security alignment with Washington—manifested through the expansion of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), increased joint military exercises such as the annual Exercise Balikatan (Shoulder-to-shoulder), and the revival of strategic interoperability—and sustains economic entanglements with Beijing. This split in strategic direction underscores a deeper phenomenon of geopolitical dualism, wherein Manila’s external alignments and internal narratives remain discordant. Rather than a calibrated hedging strategy, the Philippines exhibits ad hoc and reactive behaviour, shaped by elite fragmentation, institutional incoherence, and enduring postcolonial imbalances rooted in colonial history. In the context of an increasingly volatile U.S.-China strategic competition, such dissonance not only compromises national security credibility but also exacerbates the risks of entrapment, abandonment, strategic marginalization, and regional instability in regards to ASEAN Centrality. Rectifying this incoherence necessitates a fundamental rearticulation of Philippine grand strategy—one that is grounded in sovereign agency, coherent threat perception, and a long-term vision for its role within the regional security architecture.

Keywords: Geopolitical Dualism; Strategic Dissonance; Philippine Defence Posture; the Philippines; US-China Rivalry

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

The BRICS Advantage: What’s at Stake for Indonesia in a Multipolar World?

Vol. VI / No. 3 | March 2025

Authors:
Tora Pandito, BSc Graduate from the Faculty of Economics at the University of Brawijaya, and former Researcher at United Nations Association.

Summary
The global movement toward de-dollarization, primarily championed by BRICS countries, seeks to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and finance. Indonesia’s alignment with BRICS could significantly reshape its economic and geopolitical trajectory. With the U.S. dollar’s longstanding dominance granting the U.S. leverage in international finance, BRICS’ alternative currency initiatives aim to diversify global reserve currencies, mitigating the effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging economies. Geopolitically, BRICS membership empowers Indonesia to advocate for equitable global reforms and champion the perspectives of the Global South. By balancing alliances with both Global South and Global North, Indonesia aims to enhance its autonomy, assert its international influence, and reinforce its commitment to a multipolar world order. This article assesses the potential economic and geopolitical autonomy for Indonesia in a shifting global landscape.

Keywords: BRICS, de-dollarization, U.S. dollar, Indonesia, international trade

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

China and India’s Competition in the Global South: Opportunities for Indonesia?

Vol. VI / No. 2 | March 2025

Authors:
Rachmasari Nur Al-Husin, Associate researcher at Department of International Relations, Universitas Indonesia.

Summary
Indonesia’s aspiration to join BRICS, an economic bloc consisting of Global South countries, reflects its strategic ambition to expand its economic role. However, competition between China and India shapes the dynamics of the Global South. China’s economic diplomacy through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and India’s emphasis on cultural diplomacy and innovation add complexity to Indonesia’s position. Amid these dynamics, Indonesia faces a strategic decision: whether to align with one of the powers, maintain a balanced relationship with both, or remain neutral. This decision also comes during a national leadership transition, which could influence the direction of Indonesia’s foreign policy, particularly in navigating strategic competition within the Global South.

Keywords: Global South, BRICS, South-South Cooperation, Pragmatism, Economic Interests

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

Pragmatism at What Limitations? Indonesia’s Changing Position Towards AUKUS

Vol. VI / No. 1 | March 2025

Authors:
Ali Abdullah Wibisono, Associate Professor in International Relations Department, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia.

Summary
Although the AUKUS coalition is advertised by its member states as defense technology cooperation, it is perceived by China as a maritime alliance and a strategic challenge for it. A number of observers in the United States and Australia have also interpreted AUKUS as a policy of forming a timely collective defense as a deterrent against China. In other words, although AUKUS is not officially intended to target or contain a particular country, China and non-officials from AUKUS states frame the coalition as a containment strategy. On the other hand, AUKUS does not stand in a vacuum, but rather among countries that are not yet fully able to meet their national security needs independently and depend on one of the great powers to meet their needs. To what extent will closeness to one of the great powers invite punitive or rebuke actions from other great powers is a very relevant question if the great powers are the United States and China. Some countries in the Indo-Pacific region such as Australia and the Philippines have decided to no longer hedge against China and the US, because they perceive that the structure of the balance of power and competition between the US and China has resulted in their national interests being better met by balancing with the US against China. However, for some other countries, including Indonesia, choosing between one of the binary options is not a good idea because it is not seen as a choice that contributes to national security. This article argues that Indonesia’s response to AUKUS from 2021 to the present has changed from a cautious and sceptic position into a pragmatic one, projecting possibilities for cooperation with the minilateral mechanism. Such pragmatism has been based on the notion that US-China rivalry should be perceived not as a zero-sum game but a rather a dynamic from which Indonesia should garner positive gains.

Keywords:AUKUS, Indonesia, China, Strategic Independence, South China Sea

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

Formal Geopolitics and the Indo-Pacific: the Revival of Classical Theories

Vol. V / No. 8 | December 2024

Authors:
Marie Kwon, PhD Student, Chair Geopolitics of Risk, École Normale Supérieure of Paris, and the European Studies Unit, University of Liège (F.R.S.-FNRS).

Summary
This paper explores the resurgence of classical geopolitics in analyzing the Indo-Pacific amid the context of US-China rivalry. With its roots in German and Anglo-Saxon traditions, classical geopolitics remains central to contemporary formal discourses shaping the Indo-Pacific as a site of conflict. Despite critiques from critical geopolitics, realist frameworks and balance-of-power narratives continue to dominate, influenced by the historical legacy of classical geopolitical thinkers. This study examines the implications of this revival for the study of Asian regional space and highlights the need for critical engagement to uncover the power dynamics embedded in Indo-Pacific scholarship.

Keywords: Indo-Pacific, US-China Rivalry, Geopolitics, Balance-of-Power, Classical Theories

Geopolitical Dualism: The Strategic Dissonance of Philippine Defence Posture in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry

Philately as Method; Reflecting International Relations through the issuance of postage stamps

Vol. V / No. 7 | December 2024

Authors:
Danny Widiatmo (MA Students in Asia-Pacific Studies, College of Social Sciences, National Chengchi University, Taipei)

Summary
Postage stamps are one of the most important official documents issued by the government of a state. Although the main function of postage stamps is the currency for postal services, it does have a greater meaning for many countries relating to their international politics. This short article argues that postage stamps become a very important tool to observe and analyze the state’s symbolic gestures of foreign policy and positions on the international phenomena. First, for many under-recognized countries or nationalist movements, postage stamps become a tool of sovereignty, marking their existence in the international community. Second, as the postage stamps often commemorate bilateral friendship and multilateral participation, the philatelic collection could also reflect countries’ political dynamic and transformation which might influence their foreign policy. Lastly, it could also show how states show solidarity, stances, and alliances, towards one another. For Indonesia, studying postage stamps issued by Pos Indonesia could also help understand the transformation of its foreign policy, and observing other countries’ stamps on Indonesia, on the other hand, could reflect something else for its international relations.

Keywords: postage stamps, philately, international politics, foreign policy

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