AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Vol. V / No. 6 | September 2024

Authors:
Ali Abdullah Wibisono (Associate Professor in International Relations Department, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia)
Anastasia Artantri Widyautami (Teaching Assistant in International Relations Department, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia)

Summary
The establishment of AUKUS as a maritime alliance in the South Pacific has raised concerns about the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region. The plan to provide Australia, a non-nuclear weapon state, with SSNs could be viewed as taking advantage of the loopholes in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), including its Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement (CSA) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The agreement between Australia and the IAEA does not impose further restrictions on the development of nuclear material and technology for purposes other than nuclear weapons proliferation. This shortcoming could potentially encourage other countries to use similar justifications to install their own nuclear naval reactors, free from the IAEA inspection. With that possibility coming to a realisation, Indonesia submitted a working paper, “Nuclear Naval Propulsion” to the 2022 UN Review Conference of the Parties to the NPT, expressing concerns about potential issues arising from the exchange of nuclear technology between NWS and NNWS. This commentary concludes that while nuclear weapons non-proliferation diplomacy must continue, the NPT and its additional protocols must adopt some changes. Such amends must include formulating strict conditions for non-nuclear weapon states to be able to build nuclear technology that can be integrated into their weapons platform and exempted from IAEA inspections.

Keywords: AUKUS, Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, IAEA

AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Future Global Trade: Moving Away from Flawed Multilateralism?

Vol. V / No. 5 | September 2024

Authors:
Baginda Muda Bangsa (Political economy analyst at Laboratorium Indonesia 45)
Karina Apriladhatin (Junior Planner at Directorate of Foreign Policy and International Development Cooperation, Ministry of National Development Planning/Bapppenas)

Summary
The damage caused by World War II has given rise to the notion of globalization and free trade up until today. Data shows that free flows of capital and goods among countries have led to global convergence marked by rapid economic growth and a declining poverty rate. Nevertheless, free trade also has its shortcomings. It creates inequality and increases countries’ risk of the crisis. Global Financial Crisis 2007- 2008 marks the beginning of the globalization scepticism era. Many countries, including the United States and Europe, the biggest proponent of free trade principles, turned their back to protectionism. The situation is aggravated by the US-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine War. The future of global free trade looks ill-fated. It seems like the damage is beyond repair. Reverting to protectionism is not the solution. We argue that free trade has brought prosperity to the world, and it will always be. However, revaluation and adaptation of the current global trade regime is imperative to create a desirable future economy. This writing will focus on explaining the possible future scenario of free trade and how we can prepare for the next globalization’s wave.

Keywords: Globalization, Free Trade, Protectionism, Multilateralism

AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

The UK-Indonesia Relations under the New Governments 2024: Can Two Realisms Align?

Vol. V / No. 4 | July 2024

Authors:
Abid A. Adonis (DPhil Student at Oxford Internet Institute & Pembroke College, the University of Oxford and Bakrie Fellow Scholar)

Summary

This commentary explores the changing dynamics of UK-Indonesia relations following the 2024 elections, which resulted in new governments in both countries. In the UK, the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, has introduced “Progressive Realism” as their foreign policy principles, aiming to reconnect with global allies while addressing modern geopolitical challenges. In Indonesia, building upon Incumbent President Joko Widodo’s platform, President-elect Prabowo Subianto signifies “Pragmatic Realism” as their foreign policy core, focusing on national security, economic growth, and regional stability. The article examines the potential and challenges for these two realist approaches to align, particularly in economic cooperation and geopolitics. The analysis highlights the importance of setting non-negotiables, engaging constructively, and overcoming credibility issues to improve the UK-Indonesia relationship under their new leadership.

Keywords: UK-Indonesia relations, foreign policy, Realism, Progressive Realism, Pragmatic Realism, economic diplomacy.

AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Unlocking Indonesia’s Diplomatic Potential: The Growing Role of Parliamentary Diplomacy

Vol. V / No. 3 | July 2024

Authors:
Nida Rubini (Lecturer at Department of International Relations, Universitas Indonesia)

Summary

The Indonesian House of Representatives is poised to enhance its diplomatic role through parliamentary diplomacy, a less formal and more issue-oriented approach that complements traditional state diplomacy. Empowered by law and with a history of international engagement since Indonesia’s independence, the House actively participates in various inter-parliamentary organizations and global forums to represent the nation’s perspectives and convey grassroots concerns. Parliamentary diplomacy serves four key roles: overseeing foreign policy, engaging in diplomatic activities, involving international and regional organizations, and disseminating global issues to the grassroots. Despite challenges such as balancing national interests with multilateral cooperation and skepticism about its effectiveness, parliamentary diplomacy offers opportunities for growth, including increased funding for delegations, training for parliamentarians, and public awareness campaigns. This approach allows Indonesia to address global challenges, integrate international agreements with national policies, and ensure the voices of its citizens are heard in international decision-making.

Keywords: The Indonesian House of Representatives, parliamentary diplomacy, inter-parliamentary cooperation, second-track diplomacy, DPR-RI

ASEAN and RoK : More Than Just Alternative Partnership

Vol. V / No. 2 | March 2024

Authors:
Wildan Faisol (Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Universitas Al Azhar Indonesia)

Summary

The region of Southeast Asia and Korea is bound by historical ties of Japanese colonialism in the mid-20th century. Currently the two regions are again bound in more strategic aspects such as aspects of economic cooperation and defense technology through the multilateral cooperation framework of ASEAN and the Republic of Korea or bilaterally. involving each of the ASEAN member countries. In a political context, Southeast Asian countries are in the midst of a sovereignty dispute with China, establishing deeper relations with the Republic of Korea as a strategic partner is ideal. From an economic aspect, in the shadow of the threat of debt trap diplomacy practiced by China, building a strategic economic cooperation framework with the Republic of Korea is an ideal solution. According to the author, this collaboration should receive serious attention from policy makers because the Republic of Korea does not have hegemonic interests in the Southeast Asia region.

Keywords: ASEAN, Southeast Asia ,Korea, Defense, Economy

AUKUS and the Future of Nuclear Non-Proliferation

KASI and Korea-Indonesia Middle Power Interests: Converging the Differences?

Vol. V / No. 1 | March 2024

Authors:
Resi Qurrata Aini (Associate Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Universitas Indonesia)

Summary

After deferring its support for the US terminology of Free and Indo-Pacific Initiative (FOIP) during the past Moon Jae-in administration, Korea is getting bolder by launching its own conception of Indo-Pacific strategy in the current Yoon Suk-yeol rule.  Yoon first disclosed it at the ASEAN-Korea Summit on 11 November 2022. He complemented it by launching the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI), reiterated a few days later at a side event of the G20 Meeting in Bali. This diplomatic gesture reflects the acknowledgment of ASEAN and Indonesia as prominent for Korea Indo-Pacific Strategy. As the facto key driver of ASEAN and the chairman of ASEAN in 2023, Indonesia’s response to Korea’s Indo-Pacific conception and KASI will significantly influence how ASEAN bring it on and determine the implementation of KASI. This commentary will discuss how Indonesia perceives KASI and whether it would be a pathway to elevate Indonesia-Korea middle power strategy in dealing with geopolitical turbulences in the region. They will be assessed from Indonesia’s development priorities, geopolitical dynamics, and Korea-Indonesia middle-power interests.

Keywords: KASI, Power Interest, FOIP, Indonesia-Korea, ASEAN.

Accessibility