Vol. VI / No. 1 | March 2025
Authors:
Ali Abdullah Wibisono, Associate Professor in International Relations Department, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Indonesia.
Summary
Although the AUKUS coalition is advertised by its member states as defense technology cooperation, it is perceived by China as a maritime alliance and a strategic challenge for it. A number of observers in the United States and Australia have also interpreted AUKUS as a policy of forming a timely collective defense as a deterrent against China. In other words, although AUKUS is not officially intended to target or contain a particular country, China and non-officials from AUKUS states frame the coalition as a containment strategy. On the other hand, AUKUS does not stand in a vacuum, but rather among countries that are not yet fully able to meet their national security needs independently and depend on one of the great powers to meet their needs. To what extent will closeness to one of the great powers invite punitive or rebuke actions from other great powers is a very relevant question if the great powers are the United States and China. Some countries in the Indo-Pacific region such as Australia and the Philippines have decided to no longer hedge against China and the US, because they perceive that the structure of the balance of power and competition between the US and China has resulted in their national interests being better met by balancing with the US against China. However, for some other countries, including Indonesia, choosing between one of the binary options is not a good idea because it is not seen as a choice that contributes to national security. This article argues that Indonesia’s response to AUKUS from 2021 to the present has changed from a cautious and sceptic position into a pragmatic one, projecting possibilities for cooperation with the minilateral mechanism. Such pragmatism has been based on the notion that US-China rivalry should be perceived not as a zero-sum game but a rather a dynamic from which Indonesia should garner positive gains.
Keywords:AUKUS, Indonesia, China, Strategic Independence, South China Sea