Vol. VI / No. 4 | July 2025
Authors:
Christopher Paller Gerale, Student at State University of Malang, Indonesia
Summary
The Philippines occupies a geostrategically pivotal position in the Indo-Pacific, yet its defence posture reveals a profound lack of harmony between declaratory principles and operational conduct. While it concurrently espouses a doctrine of independent foreign policy, Manila amplifies its security alignment with Washington—manifested through the expansion of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), increased joint military exercises such as the annual Exercise Balikatan (Shoulder-to-shoulder), and the revival of strategic interoperability—and sustains economic entanglements with Beijing. This split in strategic direction underscores a deeper phenomenon of geopolitical dualism, wherein Manila’s external alignments and internal narratives remain discordant. Rather than a calibrated hedging strategy, the Philippines exhibits ad hoc and reactive behaviour, shaped by elite fragmentation, institutional incoherence, and enduring postcolonial imbalances rooted in colonial history. In the context of an increasingly volatile U.S.-China strategic competition, such dissonance not only compromises national security credibility but also exacerbates the risks of entrapment, abandonment, strategic marginalization, and regional instability in regards to ASEAN Centrality. Rectifying this incoherence necessitates a fundamental rearticulation of Philippine grand strategy—one that is grounded in sovereign agency, coherent threat perception, and a long-term vision for its role within the regional security architecture.
Keywords: Geopolitical Dualism; Strategic Dissonance; Philippine Defence Posture; the Philippines; US-China Rivalry